MetraviseWeak jobs report lifts stocks, but S&P 500 still ends the week lower
In brief
- Jobs weak: A weak September jobs report lifted stocks, with the S&P 500 up +0.71%, as hopes grew that the Fed holds rates in October.1
- Chips lead: Nvidia led the Nasdaq to an intraday record, and the Nasdaq Composite gained +1.15% on Friday.1
- Week still red: Despite Friday's gain, the Dow and S&P 500 ended the week lower as high oil and rising long-term yields weighed.2
What it means
Wages added to the soft picture, as average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% on the month and 3% on the year, the sixth straight month below inflation.3 Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, however, sees upside risks to inflation and backed September's quarter-point hike, saying future moves depend on data and the balance of risks.4 The market is weighing a cooling labor market against a Fed that still sounds wary of inflation.
The week in review and where money is flowing
Over five sessions the Nasdaq 100 posted +0.68% and the S&P 500 -0.22%, while the Metravise Portfolio gained +1.76% on Friday. In Metravise's sector data, Technology leads, +2.1 pts ahead of the S&P 500 over a month, with Semiconductor Equipment & Materials at +20.0 pts and Semiconductors at +16.8 pts. Oil also eased, with WTI down -1.94%, after a report that European nations are considering releasing strategic fuel reserves, which supported stocks.2
Micron: strong guide, cautious shares
Micron guided first-quarter revenue and adjusted EPS above Wall Street estimates, yet its shares came under pressure as investors focused on plans to spend more on manufacturing capacity.2 CNBC's Jim Cramer pointed out that restrictions tied to U.S. government funding expire in December, which in his view could free Micron's cash for a potentially significant buyback.5 The tension between heavy spending today and demand later is a recurring theme across chipmakers.
Market mood
The VIX fell -6.53% to 15.31, a reading in the normal zone that points to calm rather than stress. The equity put/call ratio stood at 0.58, slightly above its 5-day average of 0.53, a sign of modest hedging but no rush for protection.
What to watch this week
Times are Istanbul time (TSİ).
- Tue 10:45 ETFed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks — Modernizing Regulation and SupervisionBowman's remarks focus on regulation and supervision, and any comments on the economy are generally read for clues on the rate path.
- Wed 14:00 ETFOMC minutes (Meeting of September 15-16)The minutes show how broad the support was for September's hike, and a hawkish tone is generally read as pressure on bond yields.4
- Thu 04:30 ETFed Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks — Economic OutlookWaller's outlook speech is generally read for signals on whether the Fed leans toward holding rates in October.1
- Thu 08:30 ETInitial jobless claims (weekly)After the weak jobs report, a rise in claims is generally read as further labor-market cooling.1
Metravise Portfolio
- PortfolioFriday change+1.76%
- —No entries or exits in the last session.
Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sources
- Stocks rise Friday after soft jobs data, Nvidia leads Nasdaq to intraday record — CNBC · Oct 3
- How Nvidia, Micron and a surprising jobs report drove last week's stock action — CNBC · Oct 4
- U.S. labor market slows with midterms on the horizon — NBC News · Oct 3
- The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy — Federal Reserve · Oct 2
- Micron drops despite 'a great quarter.' Why Cramer is sticking with the stock — CNBC · Oct 2