Daily Bulletin · Monday, October 5, 2026 · pre-market

Weak jobs data lifts stocks as Nasdaq hits a fresh record

S&P 5007,723.49+0.71%Nasdaq27,186.73+1.15%10Y5.28%+0.04WTI$89.97−1.25%Gold$4,142.31+0.06%VIX15.31−6.53%

In brief

Jobs weak: A surprisingly soft September jobs report pulled yields lower and lifted the S&P 500 +0.71%, easing Fed hike worries.¹
Chips lead: The Nasdaq Composite rose +1.15% to a fresh high as Nvidia hit a record and chipmakers revived after Micron's results.¹
Futures flat: S&P 500 futures are at -0.10% this morning as investors weigh climbing yields against a soft labor market.²

What it means

The weak payrolls led traders to price a high probability that the Fed stays put in October.² Jefferies chief U.S. economist Thomas Simons called the number "the nail in the coffin for an October hike".³ Still, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson sees upside risks to inflation, with risks to activity and jobs roughly balanced.⁴

The day in review and where money is flowing

Over five sessions the S&P 500 slipped -0.22% while the Nasdaq 100 gained +0.68%, as a global bond rout and high oil hit rate-sensitive stocks.¹ In Metravise's data, Technology leads the past month at +2.1 pts versus the S&P 500, driven by Semiconductor Equipment & Materials at +20.0 pts and Semiconductors at +16.8 pts, while the weakest sector trails by -11.0 pts. Money is concentrating in chips rather than spreading across the market, which helps explain the Metravise Portfolio's +1.76% move.

Micron: results and questions

Some investors may worry about Micron's first-quarter gross margin outlook and higher capacity spending, which could create excess memory supply, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.⁵ Micron also reportedly sued Chinese memory maker YMTC over alleged engineer poaching.⁶

Market mood

The VIX fell -6.53% to 15.31, staying in its normal zone, while the equity put/call ratio stood at 0.58 against a 5-day average of 0.53. Fear gauges look calm, though slightly more demand for protection hints that some caution remains.

What to watch this week

Times are Istanbul time (TSİ).

10:00
US index futures (futures, not the session)Versus the prior close, S&P 500 futures are -0.10% and Nasdaq 100 futures -0.07%; these are futures prices, not the session. The US session opens at 16:30 Istanbul time.
Wed 21:00
FOMC minutes (Meeting of September 15-16)Investors will look to the September meeting minutes for more insight into the Fed's next steps.²
Thu 15:30
Initial jobless claims (weekly)After a soft jobs report, higher-than-expected claims are generally read as further labor market cooling.
Thu 11:30
Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks — Economic OutlookComments on the economic outlook are generally read for clues on how officials weigh inflation against jobs.
Fri
UMich consumer sentimentThe University of Michigan's October consumer sentiment reading closes a quiet week before earnings season.²^,1

Metravise Portfolio

PortfolioFriday change+1.76%
—No entries or exits in the last session.

Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources

Stock market next week: Outlook for Oct. 5-9, 2026 — CNBC · Oct 3
Daily Open: Who's steering oil now? — CNBC · Oct 5
Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% — CNBC · Oct 3
Speech by Vice Chair Jefferson on the U.S. economy and monetary policy — Federal Reserve · Oct 3
Micron drops despite 'a great quarter.' Why Cramer is sticking with the stock — CNBC · Oct 2
Micron Technology, Inc. Stock Quote Price and Forecast — CNN · Oct 2