Chip jitters stall stocks as investors await CPI
In brief
- Flat close: The S&P 500 slipped -0.03% as bank earnings met a steep overnight drop in South Korea that hit memory chips.1
- Chips slide: The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell a sixth straight session on AI-bubble fears; the Nasdaq 100 moved -2.12% in five days.2
- CPI in focus: September CPI is out today, and Bank of America economists warn a hot print could revive rate-hike talk.3
What it means
JPMorgan raised its net interest income guidance despite a quarterly miss, Wells Fargo was mixed and Goldman Sachs revenue beat.1 The muted reaction to bank results points to a higher bar this earnings season, especially in tech, where semiconductors carry much of the expected growth.2 Futures lean slightly higher, with S&P 500 futures at +0.22% and Nasdaq 100 futures at +0.29% before the open.
The day in review and where money is flowing
Over one month, Technology tops Metravise's sector ranking at -1.0 pts versus the S&P 500, while the weakest sector sits at -11.4 pts. Inside Technology, Electronics & Computer Distribution (+9.6 pts), Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (+5.1 pts) and Semiconductors (+3.1 pts) run ahead of the index. That lead is now being tested, as investors look for reasons to take profits in this year's AI winners, UBP's Vey-Sern Ling said.4
Chips: pressure and partnerships
Micron and other memory-linked stocks fell for a second day as investors weighed competition from China's CXMT.4 FormFactor and Teradyne announced a broad testing collaboration, with Teradyne making a $300 million equity investment in FormFactor.5 Qorvo completed its combination with Skyworks and no longer trades as a standalone stock.6
Market mood
The VIX rose +0.72% to 15.32, still in its normal zone. The equity put/call ratio stood at 0.54, below its 5-day average of 0.59, which sits in the average zone. Despite the chip slide, options positioning signals calm rather than fear.
What to watch today
Times are US Eastern (ET).
- 00:15US index futures (futures, not the session)Versus the prior close, S&P 500 futures are +0.22% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.29%; these are futures prices, not the session. The US session opens at 9:30 ET.
- Wed 08:30Consumer price index (CPI)Economists expect headline CPI up 0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y, with core at 0.2% m/m; an above-consensus print is generally read as hawkish.3
- Wed 14:00Beige BookThe Fed's Beige Book offers a regional read on the economy on the same day as the CPI report.7
- WedASML Holding NV (ASML) earnings · today before the openCNBC's Jim Cramer said investors will watch whether ASML raises guidance and describes solid demand, a read-through for chip equipment makers.8
- WedBank of America Corporation (BAC) earnings · today before the openRBC's Cassidy said bank fundamentals remain strong, pointing to Bank of America's gains from assets renewing at higher rates.9
- WedMorgan Stanley (MS) earnings · today before the openInvestors will watch M&A advisory profits and how higher bond yields may affect lending and deal activity.10
- WedTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) earnings · today after the closeCNBC's Jim Cramer said TSMC's report could be the biggest event for chip stocks, with a strong result possibly sparking a rally.8
Metravise Portfolio
- PortfolioTuesday change−0.34%
- —No entries or exits in the last session.
Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sources
- S&P 500 closes near flat after big banks post earnings and memory chip stocks decline — CNBC · Oct 14
- Stock futures are little changed as traders await consumer inflation report: Live updates — CNBC · Oct 14
- CPI Forecasts Show Moderated Inflation in September, Keeping the Fed on Hold — Morningstar · Oct 12
- Micron sinks, other memory-linked names dip for a second day — CNBC · Oct 14
- FormFactor and Teradyne Announce Strategic Collaboration to Accelerate Next-Generation Semiconductor Testing — GlobeNewswire · Oct 13
- QRVO Stock Quote Price and Forecast — CNN · Oct 13
- 5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday — CNBC · Oct 13
- Jim Cramer week ahead: Bank earnings, ASML and TSMC — CNBC · Oct 10
- Wall Street sees buying opportunity in banks as shares tank ahead of earnings — CNBC · Oct 10
- Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley have earnings momentum and are reporting this week. There are others — CNBC · Oct 13