Daily Bulletin · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · weekend edition

S&P 500 slips -0.53% as oil jumps; Fed and megacap earnings ahead

S&P 5007,622.99−0.53%Nasdaq25,954.02−0.25%10Y4.99%+0.04WTI$103.31+4.25%Gold$4,023.39−0.01%VIX19.80+3.99%

In brief

Oil climbs: WTI rose +4.25% on Friday as fears of a renewed U.S.-Iran flare-up pushed oil higher.¹
Tech slide spreads: Meta's negative free cash flow sparked a tech slide that spread to other areas, reviving AI spending worries.¹^,2
Consumers gloomy: Michigan consumer sentiment hit its second-lowest reading on record as gas prices and inflation weighed.³

What it means

Consumers ended October deeply pessimistic, and year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.7% from 4.6%.³ The 10-year yield rose +0.04 pts to 4.99%, adding pressure on richly valued growth stocks. Higher oil and firmer inflation expectations set a tense backdrop for the Fed meeting.

The week in review and where money is flowing

For the week, the S&P 500 slipped -0.43% and the Nasdaq 100 lost -0.76%. Consumer Staples led Metravise's sectors over the past month at +1.4 pts versus the S&P 500, with Discount Stores at +10.2 pts, as October favored stocks outside the AI trade.¹ Discount retailers slipped Friday after Wells Fargo analysts called Dollar Tree the most exposed to rising diesel costs.

AI spending: the bill comes due

Meta raised the lower end of its full-year capital-spending forecast, renewing doubts about AI costs.² American Express cut part of its global workforce, citing the need to prepare for AI, and its shares came under pressure.¹ Evercore's Mark Mahaney flagged possible heavier capital-spending disclosures from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon this week.⁴

Market mood

The VIX rose +3.99% to 19.80, still in the normal zone. Equity put/call was 0.69 on the latest day, above its 5-day average of 0.59, hinting at more hedging while the average stays typical.

What to watch this week

Times are US Eastern (ET).

Reported last night

RCBCRiver City BankEPS in line with the estimate (+0.2%)

Wed 14:00
FOMC rate decision (statement 2:00 p.m.; press conference 2:30 p.m.)A more hawkish tone than expected is generally read as pressure on yields; a softer one is often read as relief.
Thu 08:30
Personal income and outlays (PCE inflation)In this key inflation report, an above-consensus PCE print is generally read as a reason for the Fed to stay cautious.⁴
Thu 08:30
GDP (Advance Estimate)A weaker-than-expected GDP estimate is generally read as a sign that gloomy consumers are spending less.
Fri 08:30
Employment cost indexA hot employment cost index is generally read as wage pressure that can keep inflation sticky.
Wed
Alphabet and Microsoft earningsAlphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday, with capital-spending disclosures in focus after Meta's results.⁴
Thu
Amazon earningsAmazon reports Thursday, closing out a heavy week of megacap results.⁴

Metravise Portfolio

PortfolioFriday change−0.70%
—No entries or exits in the last session.

Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources

Stock market news for Oct. 23, 2026 — CNBC · Oct 24
CNBC Daily Open: AI spending fears haunt markets before Halloween — CNBC · Oct 23
Consumers across party lines are fed up with high gas prices — CNN · Oct 24
Next week brings major risks for the stock market, just as the AI trade keeps faltering — CNBC · Oct 24