MetraviseS&P 500 slips on Iran worries as Fed week begins
In brief
- Stocks retreat: The S&P 500 fell -0.53% and the Nasdaq Composite -0.24%, while S&P 500 futures edged up +0.16% before the open.
- Oil on edge: Oil rose on reports of possible renewed U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, adding pressure to stocks.1
- Fed decides Wednesday: Fed funds futures lean toward unchanged rates on Wednesday, while Bank of America expects a quarter-point hike.2
What it means
Markets enter Fed week facing two pressures at once: geopolitical risk lifting oil and open debate about another rate hike.1,2 The 10-year yield rose by +0.04 pts to 4.99%, keeping borrowing costs at the center of the story. Over five sessions, the S&P 500 slipped -0.43% and the Nasdaq 100 -0.76%, a modest but steady retreat.
The day in review and where money is flowing
Over the past month, Consumer Staples led Metravise's sector ranking at +1.4 pts versus the S&P 500, with Discount Stores (+10.2 pts) and Brewers (+8.8 pts) the strongest industries. Even so, defensive groups including consumer staples, utilities and healthcare came under pressure on Friday.1 Within discount retail, Wells Fargo analysts flagged Dollar Tree as the most exposed to rising diesel costs.
Telecom: SpaceX shakes up wireless
Telecom shares fell on Friday as SpaceX reportedly moved toward becoming a wireless carrier, with AT&T, T-Mobile US and Verizon all lower.1 Citi analysts said SpaceX seeking cell sites is good for tower companies and bad for telecom carriers.3 That backdrop puts extra attention on Verizon's results this week.
Market mood
The VIX rose +3.99% to 19.80, still in its normal zone, while the equity put/call ratio of 0.69 sat above its 5-day average of 0.59. Demand for protection picked up a little, but overall sentiment looks measured rather than fearful.
What to watch this week
Times are US Eastern (ET).
Reported last night
- RCBCRiver City BankEPS in line with the estimate (+0.2%)
- 00:10US index futures (futures, not the session)Versus the prior close, S&P 500 futures are +0.16% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.08%; these are futures prices, not the session. The US session opens at 9:30 ET.
- MonVerizon Communications (VZ) earnings · today before the openVerizon reports after a week in which telco stocks fell on SpaceX's wireless push, so commentary on competition is in focus.3
- Wed 14:00
- Thu 08:30Personal income and outlays (PCE inflation)An above-consensus PCE inflation reading is generally read as a sign of stickier price pressure and sharpens focus on Fed policy.
- Thu 08:30GDP (Advance Estimate)A stronger-than-expected GDP estimate is generally read as resilient growth, which can strengthen the case for tighter policy.
- Fri 08:30Employment cost indexA hotter employment cost index is generally read as wage pressure, a theme the Fed watches closely.
Metravise Portfolio
- PortfolioFriday change−0.70%
- —No entries or exits in the last session.
Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sources
- Stock market news for Oct. 23, 2026 — CNBC · Oct 26
- Stock futures climb as traders try to recover from the S&P 500's losing week: Live updates — CNBC · Oct 26
- TMUS: T-Mobile US Inc - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC — CNBC · Oct 24
- U.S. Treasury yields may be poised for a breakout with Fed meeting as catalyst, says BMO — CNBC · Oct 23