MetraviseBig Tech misses weigh on futures as energy keeps the lead
In brief
- Alphabet drags: The Nasdaq Composite fell -1.41% as Alphabet's earnings miss and negative free cash flow weighed on the AI trade.1,2
- Futures slip: Nasdaq 100 futures were down -2.09% after Amazon and Intel fell on their results, extending pressure on tech.2
- Energy leads: Energy tops Metravise's sectors, beating the S&P 500 by +3.4 pts over a month, while WTI rose +1.76%.
What it means
October has been rocky for the AI trade as investors scrutinize build-out spending, and Amazon reaffirmed its capital spending guidance despite a miss.2 Growth was not the issue: third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4%, stronger than economists expected.3 The Fed kept rates unchanged, yet two voters wanted a quarter-point increase and the statement said inflation remains elevated.4
The day in review and where money is flowing
Technology sits in Metravise's lagging group with weakening momentum, though the Nasdaq 100 is still up +1.54% over five sessions versus +0.71% for the S&P 500. Money keeps favoring energy: Oil & Gas E&P leads Metravise's industries at +13.2 pts versus the S&P 500, with Oil & Gas Drilling at +10.9 pts. Driller results added to the picture, with Nabors expecting further fourth-quarter EBITDA growth and Patterson-UTI pointing to strong free cash flow.5,6
Big Oil: Shell sets the tone
Shell announced a larger-than-expected buyback for the next three months and reported record indicative refining margins.7 It also lowered its full-year capital spending range while highlighting its investment decision on LNG Canada phase 2.8 Equinor raised its expected 2026 oil and gas production growth, citing high third-quarter output.9
Market mood
The VIX eased -2.55% to 16.46, still in the normal zone despite the tech pullback. The equity put/call ratio stood at 0.58 against a 5-day average of 0.60, an average reading that points to limited demand for downside protection.
What to watch today
Times are US Eastern (ET).
Reported last night
- INTCIntel CorpEPS above the estimate (+30.5%)
- GILDGilead Sciences IncEPS above the estimate (+16.2%)
- ERIEErie Indemnity CoEPS above the estimate (+4.5%)
- 00:15US index futures (futures, not the session)Versus the prior close, S&P 500 futures are -0.87% and Nasdaq 100 futures -2.09%; these are futures prices, not the session. The US session opens at 9:30 ET.
- Fri 08:30Employment cost indexA stronger-than-expected labor cost reading is generally read as a sign of wage pressure, a theme tied to the Fed's view that inflation remains elevated.4
- FriExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) earningsCNBC's Big Oil preview said guidance and spending commentary may matter more than the earnings themselves for ExxonMobil and Chevron.10
- FriFed speakers returnThornburg's Ali Hassan sees the end of the Fed blackout as a test, saying talk of more hikes could claw back front-end easing.11
Metravise Portfolio
- PortfolioThursday change−2.19%
- —No entries or exits in the last session.
Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sources
- Friday's big stock stories: What's likely to move the market in the next trading session — CNBC · Oct 30
- Nasdaq-100 futures fall as Amazon and Intel swoon after earnings: Live updates — CNBC · Oct 30
- U.S. economy races ahead with 3.4% growth in third quarter — Axios · Oct 30
- Fed interest rate decision October 2026: Fed holds rates steady — CNBC · Oct 29
- Record International Drilling Margin. $75 Million in Adjusted Free Cash Flow. Nabors Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results. — PR Newswire · Oct 28
- Patterson-UTI Energy Reports Financial Results for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2026 — Morningstar · Oct 29
- Shell nearly doubles quarterly profit year-on-year as refining margins soar to record high — CNBC · Oct 30
- LONDON BRIEFING: Shell profit doubles; Lloyds earnings jump — Morningstar · Oct 30
- Equinors resultater for tredje kvartal 2026 — GlobeNewswire · Oct 29
- Big Oil earnings are set to surge. Why investors may want to be cautious — CNBC · Oct 30
- 10-year Treasury yield hovers below 5% after strong GDP report, rising inflation data — CNBC · Oct 30