MetraviseFutures slide as election night points to a Democratic Congress
In brief
- Losing streak ends: The S&P 500 rose +0.35% on Election Day, ending a three-session losing streak as chip stocks rebounded.1
- Futures turn lower: S&P 500 futures fell -1.34% overnight as traders weighed the odds of Democratic control of Congress.2
- AMD stands apart: AMD jumped after hours on results and guidance above estimates, while Big Tech names slipped in extended trading.2
What it means
The session's gain rested on semiconductors, while Apple fell after a disappointing margin forecast.1 The mood shifted overnight as a strong Democratic showing raised the prospect of two years of intense partisanship, and Japan's Nikkei fell sharply.3,2 Over five sessions the Nasdaq 100 lost -4.99%, a steeper decline than the S&P 500's -1.99%, so tech remains the market's pressure point.
The day in review and where money is flowing
Consumer Discretionary led Metravise's sector map over the past month, ahead of the S&P 500 by +4.3 pts, with Energy next at +3.1 pts. Inside the leading sector, Recreational Vehicles (+14.8 pts), Restaurants (+11.7 pts) and Home Improvement Retail (+11.4 pts) were the strongest industries. In Energy, Ovintiv said it is on track for record annual free cash flow, even with a midstream outage in the Montney assumed to last through the fourth quarter.4
Restaurants: two different reads
Luckin Coffee's board approved a new share repurchase program of up to US$500 million alongside its third-quarter 2026 results.5 CEO Jinyi Guo said monthly transacting customers hit another record and store expansion kept an industry-leading pace in China. McDonald's reports into what CNBC described as a difficult macro consumer environment for the fast-food giant.6
Market mood
The VIX eased -1.94% to 20.76, which still sits in the tense zone. The equity put/call ratio was 0.67, above its 5-day average of 0.61, pointing to slightly more hedging within an average range.
What to watch today
Times are US Eastern (ET).
Reported last night
- IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.EPS above the estimate (+1.8%)
- OVVOvintiv Inc.EPS below the estimate (-2.4%)
- TOSTToast, Inc.EPS above the estimate (+2.1%)
- UNMUnum GroupEPS above the estimate (+1.9%)
- JKHYHenry (Jack) & AssociatesEPS above the estimate (+6.1%)
- ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.EPS above the estimate (+33.6%)
- 23:15US index futures (futures, not the session)Versus the prior close, S&P 500 futures are -1.34% and Nasdaq 100 futures -2.43%; these are futures prices, not the session. The US session opens at 9:30 ET.
- Wed 08:30U.S. trade balanceA wider-than-expected trade deficit is generally read as a drag on growth estimates, while a narrower one is read the opposite way.
- Wed
- Wed
- WedQualcomm Inc (QCOM) earnings · today after the closeQualcomm also reports after the bell, adding another chip read in the same session as Arm.7
Metravise Portfolio
- PortfolioTuesday change+1.98%
- —No entries or exits in the last session.
Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sources
- Stock market news for Nov. 3, 2026 — CNBC · Nov 4
- Stock futures fall on speculation Democrats to win big in midterms, slow data center buildout: Live updates — CNBC · Nov 4
- Stock futures plunge as blue tsunami hits red states and data center hot spots — Fortune · Nov 4
- Ovintiv Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results — PR Newswire · Nov 4
- Luckin Coffee Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — GlobeNewswire · Nov 4
- BTIG's Peter Saleh previews Wednesday's McDonald's earnings — CNBC · Nov 4
- Wednesday's big stock stories: What's likely to move the market in the next trading session — CNBC · Nov 4