Daily Bulletin · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · pre-market

Midterm clarity lifts the S&P 500 +1.59% as oil retreats

S&P 5007,688.73+1.59%Nasdaq25,739.71+1.47%10Y4.89%−0.06WTI$86.83−1.37%Gold$4,065.29+0.13%VIX16.88−18.89%

In brief

Vote lifts stocks: The S&P 500 rose +1.59% as midterm results removed political uncertainty that had hung over Wall Street.¹
Oil retreats: WTI fell -1.37% after Vance tied election losses to the Iran war, easing worries over energy costs.¹
AI under scrutiny: Neocloud names like CoreWeave and Nebius came under pressure as investors weighed a divided government.²

What it means

Democrats won control of Congress and President Trump accepted the results, so a major source of political risk faded in one session.¹ The mood cooled before the open, with S&P 500 futures at -0.44% and Nasdaq 100 futures at -1.31%. Freedom Capital Markets' Jay Woods said focus is turning to whether Trump's conciliatory tone has staying power.³

The day in review and where money is flowing

Consumer Discretionary leads Metravise's sector map, ahead of the S&P 500 by +6.1 pts over one month, while Technology is lagging and weakening. Inside it, Recreational Vehicles (+18.9 pts), Home Improvement Retail (+14.3 pts) and Restaurants (+13.8 pts) show the strongest relative moves. Solar power companies, dollar stores and hospital owners helped lead Wednesday's gains as investors sorted perceived winners from losers.⁴

AI trade: a new question mark

The Nasdaq 100 is down -4.64% over five sessions, a sharp contrast with the day's broad advance. Coherent's CEO said AI data centers are moving from copper to optical links, raising bandwidth and energy-efficiency needs.⁵ The election added a policy question to a theme that had carried much of the market's leadership.

Market mood

The VIX fell -18.89% to 16.88, back in its normal zone as election stress eased. The equity put/call ratio was 0.60 against a 5-day average of 0.61, an average reading that shows no rush for protection.

What to watch today

Times are US Eastern (ET).

Reported last night

COHRCoherent Corp.EPS above the estimate (+6.0%)
HUBSHUBSPOT, INC.EPS above the estimate (+16.4%)
CAVACAVA Group, Inc.EPS below the estimate (-8.2%)
ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.EPS in line with the estimate (-0.4%)

23:15
US index futures (futures, not the session)Versus the prior close, S&P 500 futures are -0.44% and Nasdaq 100 futures -1.31%; these are futures prices, not the session. The US session opens at 9:30 ET.
Thu 08:30
Initial jobless claims (weekly)A higher-than-expected claims number is generally read as a sign of a cooling labor market.
Thu 08:30
Productivity and costsRising productivity is generally read as easing pressure on labor costs and inflation.
Thu
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) earningsArm's results arrive as questions linger over AI stocks after the Democratic sweep.²
Thu
ConocoPhillips (COP) earnings · today before the openConocoPhillips reports just after oil prices fell sharply on the election outcome.¹

Metravise Portfolio

PortfolioWednesday change−3.23%
—No entries or exits in the last session.

Metravise is an educational research platform — this bulletin is not investment advice. News summaries are based on the footnoted sources; numbers are Metravise data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources

Stock market news for Nov. 4, 2026 — CNBC · Nov 5
Dow has best post-midterm elections day in 44 years as Democrats take control of Congress — CNN · Nov 5
Stocks rally as Trump accepts Democratic midterm sweep — CNBC · Nov 5
Dow posts biggest gain of the year after Democrats take control of Congress - CBS News — CBS News · Nov 5
Coherent Corp. Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results — GlobeNewswire · Nov 5